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“I highly doubt Trump will give up on the maximum pressure campaign,” a Professor of Political Science and Director of Security Studies told ILNA.

The U.S Professor, Karl Kaltenthaler said in an exclusive interview to ILNA news agency that He and his allies are convinced the campaign is working and is bringing Iran to its knees.  Also, there is no real downside for Trump to continue the campaign, even if it does irritate the US’s European allies and others. They are not an audience he seems to care a lot about.

He referred to the US attempt to activate the trigger mechanism against Iran and added “The US appears to be isolated on this issue because Trump pulled the country out of the JCPOA.  It appears clear that other parties to the JCPOA believe the US cannot leave the agreement and then dictate what happens under it.”

Kaltenthaler stressed that clearly most other countries on the UN Security Council do not believe the US has the right to invoke the Snapback mechanism.

“While there is a higher probability that the US will come back to try to renegotiate the JCPOA with Iran if Biden wins, it is not a foregone conclusion that such negotiations will be successful. “

“But it is not clear how Iranian authorities will treat new negotiations. It was controversial among Iranian political authorities when it was first negotiated.  It clearly still is,” the Professor of Security Studies at the University of Akron said.

In response to the question of whether there is a possibility of negotiations between Tehran and Washington, he confirmed that the future of US-Iranian relations is unclear. Those relations depend on a lot of factors, but most importantly the domestic political situation in the US. 

“If Trump wins re-election, we can expect more of the same posture from the US toward Iran.  If Biden wins the relationship can improve but it is not necessarily a given that a major improvement will occur.”

Karl Kaltenthaler added that the other really important factor is what the divided Iranian leadership will prioritize.  If Iran continues to back groups that threaten US interests and allies in the Middle East, it will be difficult to improve the relationship in a very meaningful way.

Asked about the outcome of the U.S presidential election, the U.S Professor said “Trump is in a difficult re-election fight right now.  The COVID and economic crises are really hurting him politically in the United States. He has an uphill climb to win reelection. But I would not count him out. A great deal of the election outcome will depend on the turnout of voters. The candidate that can best turn out his voters has the edge.

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JCPOA Karl Kaltenthaler Snapback mechanism US’s European allies COVID U.S presidential election
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