Political science professor at New Hampshire University Kurk Dorsey said that tensions in Persian Gulf have reached a point of stability or equilibrium but no one involved wants to start a war, and it looks like each major country has found a way to project opposition toward its rivals without pushing one of them over the edge to declare war.
He said in an exclusive interview with ILNA news agency that either Iran and Israel, or the United States leadership might decide that the stability is actually detrimental to its interests and shake things up. If that happens, it is impossible to predict the outcome.
Asked about Donald Trump policy, he said "Trump has shown a willingness to throw out tradition and past policy, such as with his policy toward North Korea or his attempt to talk directly with the Taliban on September 11th of all days."
"But Trump made a repeated case that President Obama failed the US by making a deal with Iran. Iran might be able to work with Trump if it can find a diplomatic offer that looks better for the US than the deal that Obama got. The deal doesn't actually have to be better; it just has to look like Trump did something significantly different."
He pointed to Trump new challenges and added remember that Trump is now under incredible pressure because of the impeachment proceedings. His behavior recently has been even stranger than usual.
US professor has no positive view of Europe's efforts, and said "Macron can't be successful because a policy without US support is pointless. But he has to try, for two reasons; First, Macron has ambitions to be more powerful on the international stage, so he can't just walk away from the problem. Second, he understands that Trump is likely to lose the 2020 election, so France's interest is to try to keep things from boiling over until a reasonable person takes over in the United States in 2021 (we all hope).
Answering to question about the consequences of the Aramco facility attack, Kurk Dorsey said that if there were going to be direct consequences, they would have happened by now. But that attack was the kind of stupid thing that might destabilize a tense situation and lead to an actual war.
"I don't think it will lead to an overt escalation, but Saudi Arabia can't let such an attack happen again."