Chances of reviving JCPOA are diminishing: Professor

The Professor at the Department of Political Science, Karl Kaltenthaler, said in an exclusive interview with ILNA that the Iran deal is still possible, adding that "the US or the Iranians are going to have to compromise on the IRGC issue to move forward.  It is entirely possible that this issue will block a revival of the deal."

Q.What is your opinion about the interruption in the negotiations?

A.The negotiations have now reached an impasse.  The issue that is stalling the negotiations is the designation of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) by the United States.  The Iranian government wants this designation to be lifted as it limits the ability of the IRGC to have financial and other types of dealings outside of Iran.

Q.Is the reason for this delay in the requests of Iran or the delay of the United States?

A. The US has argued that the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization has nothing to do with nuclear issues and thus is not willing to negotiate this issue.  From the Iranian perspective, I am sure they see the US unwillingness to budge on this issue as the reason for the delay.  But from the American perspective, the Iranian demand to remove the IRGC designation as an FTO is viewed as the reason for the delay.

Q.Will we see the resumption of negotiations and the revival of the nuclear deal?

A. I think the likelihood of a deal has again diminished.   I think it is unlikely the Biden administration will back down on the issue of the IRGC’s FTO designation.  There would likely be a huge uproar in American domestic politics and from US allies if Biden decided to remove the FTO from the IRGC.  It also seems that the Iranian position is hardening if you listen to recent statement’s coming from the Iranian president’s office.

Q.What is your advice to the participating members of the Vienna talks?

A. I don’t really have advice for the participants in the talks. They need to decide what their national security interests are and what they are willing to accept from a potential deal. They are clearly able to make that determination on their own.

Q. Has the Russia-Ukraine war affected the talks?

A. I don’t think the war has had a profound impact on the negotiations. It does likely not help to build trust between the US and Iran that the Iranian government seems to be squarely in Russia’s corner regarding the war.

Q. In the end, is agreement still possible?

A. It does seem like a deal is possible but the probability of that happening is lower than it was a couple of months ago.  Either the US or the Iranians are going to have to compromise on the IRGC issue to move forward.  It is entirely possible that this issue will block a revival of the deal.