Code: 1038157 A

This week, Brent Oil prices broke through the technical resistance level of $60/barrel within the upward trend channel. As a result, the multiyear downward trend was broken. Technically, a rally to $70/barrel is possible. ABN AMRO revises up oil price forecasts, but the $50-60/barrel trading range remains the base scenario.

“Based on the technical outlook, oil prices could rally to $70-72/barrel, which are the peaks of September 2019 and January 2020. However, based on fundamental analysis, the case for further price gains is hard to make, although we are seeing optimism in financial markets in general.”

 “We continue to expect a trading range in which the average Brent oil prices trade roughly between $50 and $60/barrel. Nevertheless, market speculation may temporarily push oil prices higher. Based on the supply/demand balance, we think that such much higher oil prices are not sustainable and that oil producers will then start to increase production.”

“With so much spare production capacity available, there will be no shortages in the coming years. There is also a risk that the expected recovery in demand for oil will be disappointing. The biggest recovery of demand will have to come from the aviation sector. Especially for aviation, we do not yet see a major recovery this year.”

“If investors start to feel that the upward movement is coming to an end, profit-taking on the extensive long positions could trigger a severe downward price correction. We, therefore, believe that the risks to the oil price are mainly on the downside.”

“We have also adjusted the oil price somewhat for 2022 and 2023. Again, we still see the $50-60 range. However, the price could rise slightly as a result of the expected economic recovery once the lockdowns ease.”

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Oil prices Brent oil
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